Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

In a nearly $13 billion settlement with the US Justice Department in November 2013, JPMorganChase admitted that it, along with every other large US bank, had engaged in mortgage fraud as a routine business practice, sowing the seeds of...

There are a lot of moving parts to any geopolitical crisis, and thus, things can change quickly and dramatically. Therefore, it is important that we remain flexible and make decisions based on hard evidence, rather than fear.

Earlier today, the U.S. dollar moved higher after positive economic data. The Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose 0.4% (above expectations for an increase of 0.1%) and personal income rose 0.3% (also above...

Investors are currently receiving mixed messages regarding the ramifications resulting from the Fed’s exit of debt monetization. Officials from the Federal Reserve are assuring market participants that there will be a smooth transition...

Caution is now advised as prices have been rejected at resistance with speculation at the highest level in over a year.

The good news is: Most of the major averages closed at all time or multi year highs on Thursday or Friday. The negatives: The major indices were up 6% - 9% in February leaving the market overbought. New highs have picked up quite...

The S&P 500 Index is most likely to be in a topping pattern with an upside bias that lasts for at least another 18 months. This provocative thought is based upon the collective technical analysis of the S&P charts at different...

In late January/early February, economic fundamentals were looking shaky. The negative data spilled over from the fundamentals into the technicals. The chart of the S&P 500 below shows a vulnerable stock market on Monday, February 3...

The dividing line between silver performing as a monetary asset versus an industrial commodity is tethered to a broken price discovery system, where unlimited position limits are held by the most influential of traders.

Silver is a commodity growing in appeal as an investment vehicle recently. Whether coins, or more cost-efficient silver investment bars, bullion has averaged 17.8% annual returns over the last 10 years, beating every major asset class...

Some of the Federal Reserve’s districts compile and release monthly economic reports for their regions. In the last week or two, those reports were that the Fed’s Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from 12.5 in January to 4.5 in...

According to most students of the historical value of silver, the lowest inflation adjusted price of the metal occurred at around 4 dollars in the early 1990s- a price that silver basically stayed within one dollar of for the next ten...

Credit is a wonderful tool that can help advance the division of labor, thereby increasing productivity and prosperity. The granting of credit enables savers to spread their income over time, as they prefer. By taking out loans,...

When baseball fans talk about players from the early 1900s, Babe Ruth is normally the first person mentioned. He was a great home-run hitter with 714 career home runs, a record that stood for almost 40 years. Only two men have surpassed...

Thursday’s new all-time closing high on the S&P 500 is relevant from a support and resistance perspective. The previous all-time closing high of 1,848 was printed January 15.

Dear Depositor: We don’t want to cause you unnecessary stress or worry, but it might be prudent to pay attention to a series of unusual news reports recently emanating from the banking world. Viewed independently, each event might be...

The U.S. dollar extended gains after stronger-than-expected U.S. home sales data. Earlier today, the Commerce Department showed that new home sales rose 9.6% to 468,000 units in January, while analysts had expected a 1% drop to 400,000...

Investors have been worried about slowing economic growth coupled with tapering from the Fed. While one report does not make a trend, Wednesday’s data on housing gave the stock market bulls a reason to remain optimistic.

Few noises emitted by the U.S. (and Western) mainstream media have been as shrill or as sustained as the endless accusations that “China is a currency-manipulator”. Every time the renminbi falls in value versus the dollar (and sometimes...

We were recently asked in a handful of emails about the importance of emerging market bonds (PCY) relative to the S&P 500. The basic question was “should we be tracking the emerging market bond ETF (EMB) to monitor the health of the...

If you are traveling at 100 mph and you abruptly hit the car breaks, as a passenger it can cause serious consequences. If the car is then suddenly slammed into a reverse direction, a fatality may often the likely outcome. Similarly,...

As talk ramps up about putting and end to the ‘austerity’ here in the US, it should be rather clear what the intent of the establishment is with regards to the US dollar. They’re going to burn it to the ground, as is the case with every...

Global Economics is not as complicated as the Ivy trained Keynesian economists would have you believe. As Goldman Sachs gleefully illustrates, the world is presently divided into two financially warring camps. The Emerging Markets (EM)...

In claiming to now be “tapering” its monetary stimulus (another lie); we have the Federal Reserve effectively throwing in the towel. The witch doctors are not even contemplating any new voodoo to try to resuscitate their patient. If the...

The good news is: The NASDAQ composite (OTC) closed at a multi year high on Tuesday and, last week, the secondaries were stronger than the blue chips. The negatives: New highs increased last week, but remain below their levels of a...

Last week I discussed long-term cycles for gold so I thought I would follow this up with some notes on long-term cycles for silver. One would presume that silver’s cycles are the same as gold and they would be wrong. Given their...

The Chinese financial system, along with the rest of the emerging market, exist as an extension of "the world is flat monetary policy" on a scale never seen before. It is equally a giant leverage play on the last remaining resources for...

Two pieces of business news announced this week provide a convenient frame through which to view our dysfunctional and distorted economy. The first (which has attracted tremendous attention), is Facebook's blockbuster $19 billion...

Weekends are a good time to address areas of vulnerability in your investment strategy. Many investors toss and turn at night worrying about wealth-destroying bear markets or opportunities they may miss for their uninvested cash, which...

The economic reports turn ever uglier, and the stock market loves it. Something seems wrong with that picture. In recent months, it has been the unexpected widening of the U.S. trade gap, as exports decline and imports rise. It has been...

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Spanish Conquistadores invaded the Inca Empire in 1528 to steal their silver and gold.