Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

One of our proprietary indicators is the Percent Buy Index (PBI), which shows the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are on intermediate-term buy signals.

Using simple principles of human nature, we can conclude the Fed, and central banks around the world, will continue to print money longer than most market participants believe. Therefore, a bullish tailwind may remain behind stock...

The good news is: The blue chip indices closed at all time highs on Friday. The negatives: New lows declined a little last week, but, their levels remained above recent averages.

In 1999 Warren Buffett famously warned that “The next 17 years will be quite unlike the last 17 years. It might not look much better than the dismal 1965-1982 period.” He was referring to the market’s history of cycling between long-...

Technical analysis will always have a place in the speculative marketplace. Its function may not be reading tea leaves, but its connection to fundamentals is about as useful as the modern day consumer price index.

The incredible rally in equities in 2013 has begun to stir concern among many that the stock market is now in a bubble. We have entered the euphoric stage of this bull market and equity prices cannot and will not go lower according to...

Last month, Americans were transfixed by the amateur theatrics undertaken by the Washington political establishment in connection with the debt ceiling crisis. The bad faith, poor tactics and wholesale avoidance of reality were offered...

There will be few readers who are not at least partially familiar with the stylish, thought-provoking film classic, The Matrix. For those readers not among that group; The Matrix is a sci-fi drama which postulates a future where...

As we outlined using an example with Facebook on October 25, the value of the ETFs in your portfolio are determined by the aggregate opinion of millions of investors around the globe. If the aggregate opinion sets asset prices, then...

The longer you are involved with the financial markets, the more you respect the market’s obsession with the Fed. The quantitative easing process (QE) pumps money into the global financial system. The money can find a home in stocks,...

The Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) are a family comprised of 6 metals – platinum, palladium rhodium, iridium, osmium and ruthenium. But for our purpose today (and for most investors), we are only interested in the first two – platinum and...

We are not big fans of quantitative easing (QE), but a fair question is where would the markets, economy, and employment be if the Fed had never printed money? The obsession with the Fed says QE matters to the markets; and what matters...

By now we have all heard it many times before…the Fed’s mantra about ending QE is starting to sound just like a broken record. Our central bank is aware it has to stop manipulating credit and interest rates some day, and on a basic...

We were very reluctant to “get on Twitter” a few years back, but have found it to be a great source of anecdotal information allowing us to monitor investor sentiment. Since the October 9 intraday low in stocks, the trend in Twitter-...

While common sense tells us “printing our way to prosperity” seems like an unlikely longer-term outcome, in the short run it can help push stock prices higher.

Three Tailwinds Could Converge For Bulls. Central banks continue to print. 13-year S&P 500 breakout. The economy is still growing

The good news is: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all time high on Friday. All of the patterns that I discussed last week are still in place or have accelerated so the charts in this weeks report will all be updates of...

The manipulation of gold prices, along with practically every other asset class, has perfectly transparent legal precedent. The precious metals political hot potato taboo has been strong enough to make it almost impossible for the...

Thursday’s better than expected U.S. GDP numbers were interpreted by the markets as “good economic news is bad news on the Fed tapering front”

There are legitimate worries for the short term regarding the government debt, like how Washington will handle its next chance to agree on a spending bill and raise the debt ceiling.

The Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing has given rise to an all time low in the money multiplier which, in turn, has a higher probability of rising than falling. Notwithstanding the recent explosion of personal debt, Chart #5 below...

Looking at a picture of the S&P500 on an inflation adjusted basis you get a different picture then what is being painted by the market and especially the mainstream media. Most people only look at where the market is today vis-à-vis...

In the first 10 months of this year, the U.S. Mint sold 39.2 million ounces of silver in coins. In the same period last year, the Mint only sold 28.94 million ounces of silver in coins. A general negativity by investors surrounding...

Markets must climb a wall of worry. The long-time expression on the Street is backed by common sense. If investors are worried, then it stands to reason that they may have kept some money on the sidelines for the pullback they “know” is...

With less than a year to go before the bottom of the 60-year Super Cycle many investors are wondering how the coming months will play out. There are at least two major possibilities that need to be discussed: the soft landing and the...

We live in a time with unprecedented and simultaneous easy-money policies from the world’s largest central banks; the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. Easy money policies, without question, distort...

The market averages continue to set record highs, as investors are forced by the Fed into stock market speculation due to artificially-suppressed interest rates. But neither our central bank nor corporate measures deployed solely to...

The good news is: The NASDAQ composite (OTC) closed at a multi year high last Tuesday while most of the other broad based indices closed at all time highs. The negatives: For the 1st time since last May, by the measure shown in the...

World silver spot prices are determined by a once sacred, but now inept, process. While the evolution of futures contract for the modern age helped facilitate the industrial revolution, it has now been completely usurped and abused....

Fed tapering will be a legitimate worry in a few months, but should not be yet. Analysts and economists have been concerned for almost five years now about how Fed Chairman Bernanke would ever be able to manage a successful exit from...

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Dollar falls on uncertainty but ends week with modest gain