Chris Ciovacco

Articles by Chris Ciovacco

The major U.S. market indexes got off to their worst start in history this year, which is a very strong statement. Are other areas of the market waving red flags as well? From Bloomberg:

The junk-bond market is indicating a 44 percent...
Fed Statement Wednesday

Heading into this week's FOMC meeting, the Fed has been unable to convince skeptical markets about the prospect of multiple rate hikes in 2016. From The Wall Street Journal:

Officials at the U.S. Federal...
2015 Breadth Versus 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011

Market breadth speaks to the percentage of stocks participating in a stock market rally. All things being equal, the broader the participation the healthier the market. In this article, we...
Similar Periods From Interest Rate Cycle Perspective

Based on 30-day Fed fund futures prices, the CME Group estimates a 74% probability the Fed will raise rates in December after keeping them steady for years. From a historical...
Monthly Labor Report

All eyes will be on this week's monthly labor report. The report, which is due Friday at 8:30 am ET, may impact the outcome of the Fed's December meeting.



Friday's non-farm payrolls report will also impact...
There May Be Gains To Capture In Stocks In The Coming Years, But Risk Management May Be Very Important Down The Road

While pondering the recent shift in market sentiment/hard data, along with the possible ramifications for investors, we...
'Everything Is Not Rolling Over'

You may have heard the argument that the stock market looks better than many believe, based on the fact that several key sectors have not rolled over yet. For example, while the slope of the S&P 500'...
History Helps With Flexibility

Since the S&P500 recently completed a very rare period of V-bottoms, it is easy to visualize and understand the "rapid bottom and push to new highs" case for stocks. Recent bias tells us we may have...
Fear Of Waiting Too Long



With interest rates hovering near zero, the Federal Reserve is in a difficult spot. Even if the Fed raises rates in September, they still have two problems on their hands:


Very limited supply of policy...
It Is Not That Simple

Before you look at the charts below and say "hey this is easy...now is the time to buy", keep in mind the first two charts show similar CCM Market Model readings within the context of a bull market. The same model...

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Gold weakens on global cues and lackustre demand