Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

The good news is: All of the major indices closed at all time or multi-year highs on the day before New Years Eve. The negatives: All of the major indices closed at multi-year or all-time highs last Tuesday, while the breadth...

With a nearly 65% decline you could be forgiven for thinking that the best run is behind the white metal. I have to admit the price action has been discouraging. It is one thing to be down over 60%- after all, we saw silver decline by...

The last time housing market sentiment and precious metals prices lined up this way, we were on the cusp of massive volatility and collapse. Housing had reached the end of its long great credit driven rope. At the same time, defaults...

Silver is poised for a massive recovery upleg in 2014, a mean reversion from last year’s dismal action. The main driver of silver’s initial strength will be American futures speculators covering shorts. These bearish bets on silver...

As we noted on January 2, the market’s current profile does not point to an imminent bear market in stocks. However, anyone who studies markets knows strong bull markets are inevitably followed by principal-destroying bear markets. When...

Roughly half of the U.S. population owns stocks, which equates to approximately 156 million people. Those 156 million people along with millions more around the globe determine the value of our portfolios. When the aggregate outlook for...

The Hebrew word for Silver is the same word that is used interchangeably for Money in the Torah and Old Holy Bible Testament: Silver metal = Kesef (כסף), which also means Money. Moreover, in all Hispanic countries the word for money is...

Look closely at this chart. The timing is near perfect. All silver lows take place at # 3 low. The silver bulls are just about ready to begin their ultimate stampede all the way up to # 1 - # 2. Either join those few knowledgeable...

As we prepare to close the books on 2013, investors are being hit with a variety of financial forecasts for 2014. Are we better off basing investment decisions on forecasts or a method based on observing, tracking, and adjusting?

One can never read tomorrow’s news today, but developing market activity can give one a higher degree of probability as to what, if not tomorrow’s then what the news will soon be sometime after. Facebook is a case in point. The...

Mr. Bernanke, in a move made mostly to bolster his legacy, stated in his final press conference as Chairman of the Fed that he would start to reduce asset purchases in January of 2014. Nearly every advisor on Wall Street took the news...

In the last Market Overviews (and also to a considerable extent in the last several Premium Updates) we have discussed in detail differences between tapering and tightening. As we have stated, a personal change of the Fed’s chairman...

Why was the stock market able to break out from the 13-year consolidation pattern we covered last Friday? The bigger picture answer may lie in the answers to these five sub-questions: Does economic data support an imminent recession? Is...

The coming explosion in the value of silver will be a shock to the world due to the failure of the analyst community. I am completely amazed at the lack of quality analysis today. Except for a few good analysts, there’s a sea of lousy...

The good news is: All of the major indices closed at all time or multi year highs on Thursday. The negatives: There are no negatives, the market is in holiday mode, rising on low volume. The positives: Seasonality rules. The NASDAQ...

Thin holiday markets have yielded a surprise strong performance by the metal sector, not least silver and platinum. The move came during a week where US stock indices extended their gains to new all-time highs and ten-year bond yields...

Psychologists say much of the reason investors have such a dismal record of buying high and selling low, of being excited and buying enthusiastically at market tops and then bailing out in disgust at market bottoms, can be explained by...

We were asked by a friend in the media for one prediction for 2014 and a brief explanation of our position. Silver rallies 50% as inflation expectations rise and worldwide growth reaccelerates.

2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the...

Those looking for economically illiterate proposals can have a field day reading Ezra Klein's "Wonkblog" on the Washington Post. In Full Employment Gives People Jobs Klein states (citing two others) "The Federal Reserve Bank’s focus on...

The metal and related stocks appear poised for upside. I know what you’re thinking: How can this be? The deck has been stacked against gold and silver all year — from a drop in inflation to the craziness over Bitcoin by the anti-fiat...

Much confusion persists regarding the method, or mechanics, of how the big banks are able to push the price of precious metals around at will for so long.

As silver closes out 2013 with its second straight annual loss, many are asking when (or if) silver has bottomed. I believe that silver has either made a bottom—or is awfully close to making one. This case is made all the stronger by...

Now What? This is What : “The question now is whether or not this is the start of a larger topping scenario and the answer to that question is for now at least, no, not by evidence showing up in our indicators like junk bond (risk on...

Before we examine how long bull markets can last, it should be noted the bulls have the fundamental and technical stars aligned for a year-end rally in stocks. From a probability perspective, the best time to invest is when charts and...

When a stock is above a moving average it is considered bullish, and the stock can be considered to be in a rising trend for that time frame. A good way to determine the market's condition (overbought/oversold) across a range of time...

The Federal Reserve announced this week that it will provide $75 billion of quantitative easing (QE) in January, a massive amount, and will provide large though diminishing amounts of additional stimulus for months thereafter.

The good news is: The NASDAQ composite (OTC) closed at a multi year high on Friday while all of the other major indices closed at all time highs. The negatives: None of the breadth indicators confirmed Friday’s highs.

The curious case of Bitcoin and the associated rise of electronic currency has rekindled money and wealth discussions. It has also given rise to the re-birth to a libertarian cyberpunk ideology. In some ways, the response is a natural...

We have been stating for some time the Federal Reserve was using quantitative easing (QE) as monetary lighter fluid to get the economic fire started again. The Fed desperately wants to cut back on monetary injections and pass the baton...

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Man has had the ability to separate silver from lead for as far back as 4000 B.C.