Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

The taper surprise was that stocks rocketed higher once the markets digested the Fed’s statement. The market chose to focus on the improving economy rather than a reduction in monetary stimulus.

Today we note that: The US economy is tipping back into recession again. Corporate profits are at record highs and set to fall. Stocks are extremely overvalued. All of these add up to a real problem for long-term stock investors today....

It’s ‘taper’ talk time again and here is a post that is only too happy to join the cacophony… Dear Federal Reserve, please signal what would be at least a symbolic gesture to the market and pretend to tighten policy by beginning a...

With the last major news item for 2013 less than 48 hours away, I thought I would share some insights as to what the S&P500 Cash Index (SPX) options were pricing into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement due out...

In early December, we used Japan as an extreme example of why central banks are terrified of allowing their respective economies to slip into a deflationary spiral. Do the same concepts apply to the United States? They do. The federal...

A growing number of market technicians, some of them highly respected, are forecasting a sharp correction in the January-February time frame. In light of a number of recent inquiries I’ve had regarding this possibility, let’s examine...

On Monday, October 18th 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 508 points (22%). There are many theories as to why the crash occurred, but the simple truth is that the panic stemmed from a sharp rise in interest rates. Likewise,...

Let’s take a look at the short-term and intermediate-term technical pictures for both gold and silver. Before we get too excited over the rally in silver, consider that whenever a commodity rallies after a multi-week sustained decline,...

The good news is: The Santa Claus rally is scheduled to begin around the middle of next week. The negatives: New highs deteriorated on both the NYSE and NASDAQ last week while new lows were pretty steady on the NASDAQ and rose...

In all periods silver is giving sell signals and SLV is a on short term sell signal.

No one can question the fact that the demand for silver has grown exponentially in the past few years, record sales for American Eagle coins being one small example, record buying in India, another larger example. Demand has never been...

Informed precious metals investors are well aware of the tremendous “squeeze” placed upon gold demand in India, via the draconian suppression of imports. Regular readers of my work understand that this gold-squeeze was, in fact,...

Even though its price has declined over 30% this year alone, silver remains the people’s metal. Silver remains a store of value when central planners try to inflate their way out of debt. Silver remains an asset for anyone who senses...

The Federal Reserve has been looking for noticeable improvement in the economy to allow them to begin paring back their latest quantitative easing campaign. Thursday, economic bulls went 2-for-3.

We made the case on July 30 the Fed’s desire to taper is about bubble management rather than confidence in the economy. Hard evidence aligning with a “the Fed is still concerned about the economy” stance was included in the most...

Much has been made of the 203 thousand jobs that were added in the November employment report in the US. It was the second month in a row for 200 thousand plus jobs created. As well, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7% from 7....

A reader asks, “I was wondering if it’s possible that the long cycles, such as the 60-year cycle, have already bottomed early. Is that even a possibility within the scope of the cycles? It appears that the Fed has complete control of...

Jean-Baptiste Say was a French businessman and economist in his early twenties when the Bastille was stormed and the French revolution followed. While the terrors unleashed by the revolution are what we remember from history lessons,...

When bond investors are worried about the economy and default risks, it is concerning for stock investors. When bond investors are worried about rising interest rates, it is much less concerning for the equity markets. What is the...

I originally wrote this in September 2013. It is just as relevant now in December. The big news in America is that the rate on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen dramatically from around 1.6% to over 2.9%. This is 130 basis points from...

Although the U.S. stock market continues to hit new nominal highs on a nearly daily basis, the U.S. economy bumps along at a lackluster pace. This disconnect has been achieved by a massive Fed experiment in monetary stimulation. Through...

If you follow the markets closely, you have probably asked yourself at some point why does the Fed keep sending mixed messages? If we think in extremes, we can understand the Fed’s rationale.

Earlier this week, we covered the good news is bad news logic that dominated the markets Monday through Thursday. Friday, the markets shifted to a “good payroll numbers mean a strengthening economy, which is good news for stocks” stance...

The good news is: NASDAQ breadth data was stronger than NYSE breadth data last week. The negatives: As of Thursday most of the major indices were short term oversold having been down for 5 consecutive days. A violent rally on Friday...

We advocate a proactive stance in managing one’s stock portfolio as the most prudent way to preserve and grow capital, by capturing gains and limiting risks. The days of buy and hold are finished, at this stage of a central bank propped...

Beyond the typical underlying changes in money supply there are very important elements of demand that continue to push the price of physical silver higher and higher. This is despite the fact that silver has been money for much longer...

Despite the quiet nature of things lately from a geopolitical standpoint, coupled with the mainstream media’s obsession with new nominal highs in the various paper indexes, there is definitely turbulence below the surface. There have...

Are economic reports finally indicating an acceleration in the economic recovery - or not? Markets need to know. Investors need to know. Most importantly, the Fed needs to know. The prognosis changes from month to month, even week to...

I still remember December 2012 and how petrified CNBC was trying to make people of the fiscal cliff. They had a fiscal cliff countdown for an entire month as if when it expired the stock market would explode. Everyone on there was...

Markets can get somewhat confused when the economy begins to strengthen. On one hand, economic growth is good for earnings. On the other hand, an improving economy increases the odds of a Fed stimulus reduction announcement. Thursday’s...

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Gold falls on firm dollar, China rate cut lends support