No Clear Short-Term Direction - Topping Pattern?

December 28, 2015

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral

Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral

Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish

Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.3% on Thursday, retracing some of their recent move up, as investors took short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index extends its medium-term consolidation following October rally. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,080-2,100. On the other hand, support level is at 2,000-2,020:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.2-0.4%. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday downtrend, as it retraces some of its recent advance. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,050-2,060. On the other hand, support level is at 2,020, among others, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it currently trades along the level of 4,600. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,630, and support level is at 4,580-4,600, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market remained within a short-term consolidation on Thursday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. The S&P 500 index extends its two-month long consolidation following October rally. We prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.


Courtesy of

Paul Rejczak is a stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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