Silver Price Forecast

February 15, 2017

silver bar

The single most question many people ask or want to know is where will silver be in a week or month and when?  We gave up asking that question over three years ago after realizing that 2014's movement in silver would not be much different than 2013. Consequently, we repeated this observation for 2015 and 2016.  It is now 2017.  The number of forecasters/market experts that were calling for considerably higher prices during those years was legion. Nonetheless, silver remains closer to its recent bottom without having made a sustained rally to those widely anticipated much higher levels.

Will silver ever reach considerably higher prices?  The temptation is to issue a resounding "Absolutely!", but nothing is guaranteed.  The known supply and demand for silver [and gold] has been out of kilter for years.  Silver and gold [as are all precious metals] are the only markets that do not reflect reality.  The supply has never been smaller relative to insatiable demand, while prices continue to languish near their recent lows.  Yet, asking where the price of silver will be in the future is totally missing the point.

The more pertinent question that should be uppermost in everyone's mind is, "Will I be able to buy silver [and gold] in the near future at any price?!"  There is currently a war on cash being waged, ostensibly to "fight terrorism." However, in reality, it is the globalists that are eliminating cash and along with it, individual rights, freedom and privacy.

The globalists in charge of the world's fiat currencies will not tolerate competition and have done everything to prevent the only form of true money from interfering with their fiat Ponzi scheme of trafficking in worthless paper, now mostly digitalized substitutes.  By eliminating cash, you will have no financial privacy because all of your transactions will be tracked and monitored [expect your taxes to increase], be subject to negative interest rates, [a form of government confiscation of your money], and also be subject to bail-ins as the banks steal your "money" in order to cover up their losses from all the risks associated with their bad lending practices and even greater, unfathomable derivative exposure.

All profits are taken by the banks.  All losses are socialized onto the people.

Once the war on cash is accomplished, the war on silver and gold will not be far behind, and it is possible to wage that financial war before the one on cash is completed.  The war on cash is a certainty.  India was a huge trail balloon when the US government [quietly behind the scenes] pushed Prime Minister Modi to take the unprecedented elimination of the 1000 and 500 Rupee bank notes, around $15 and $7.50, respectively.  This was done overnight and without any notice.  People woke up only do discover their "legal tender" was no longer legal, and in fact, was worthless.  India is mostly a cash society where the majority of the population does not even have a bank account.

About 25% of people in the US use cash, so it will be much easier to get rid of the $100 bill, and then eventually, all cash.  There was, and still is, financial chaos in India, but the globalists got to see how the banker-forced transition is still moving forward, and that experience will be used to push the US in the same direction.  Europe has already been eliminating larger notes, and it is advocating eliminating cash altogether, sooner rather than later.

It cannot be emphasized enough, the globalists are on the warpath to get the world on a digitalized "money" standard…cash and people be damned.  One of the best ways to avoid being stripped of all of one's wealth or financial holdings is to have and possess physical silver [and gold].  There is no third-party counter risk in owing precious metals.  They are not subject to negative interest rate impositions, and they cannot be bailed-in.  This is why, for us, the greater question is not what will the price of silver be at any time in the future, but will you be able to actually buy it, whatever the price?

Once government has a stranglehold on your financial holdings, forcing you to have all of your "money" accountable in a digital bank account, and all cash transactions are simply banned or required to be reported, at the risk of heavy fines/confiscation, your ability to buy silver privately will disappear.  Any purchases will be known to the banking system, and the government may one day come knocking on your door to ask why you bought it and why should you be allowed to keep it?

On the other hand, those who have been acquiring silver [and gold] for the past few years run no risk of having their personal form of wealth subject to confiscation.  Of course, this is only true if one's holding of silver is in physical form and in physical possession.  If you do not hold it, you do not own it.  Paper holdings of any kind will not translate into taking physical possession.  Owning silver in some ETF, or bank, or other holding facility does not mean you will ever be able to take delivery.  Caveat emptor!

The main point to be made for readers is to realize that you do not need some so-called PM expert to "predict" what the price of your silver will be.  You should be your own expert and know two things:  1. owning [personally holding] physical silver is essential, and 2. prices are going higher, much higher!   If you do not already have it, or plan on buying more, price is the least of your considerations.  Ask yourself, is there anything else you need to know beyond these two points?

The present availability/ability to buy it under current conditions, meaning you can still do it anonymously, is all that matters.  Yes, everyone wants to buy low, but the window for buying at all may be closing. Moreover, it could be closing permanently if the government gets its way, and it will.

When will prices go higher?

The best answer is: nobody knows!

There are experts and web sites that can tell you how much available silver there is, to the last ounce, what the demand is [and it is excessively higher than supply, and when demand is higher than supply, price must rise to satisfy demand]. Furthermore, they will also say silver may eventually reach $100, $200, $400 or more per ounce.  We have no quarrel with these price predictions, only with the timing which cannot be known in advance.

Probably the best, maybe even the only source that can answer that question is China. There has been an inexorable shift in gold and silver ownership from West to East, and China is soon to be the country to dictate what the price of Precious Metals will be.  The Shanghai Gold Exchange started a gold trading platform with yuan-denominated gold contracts on September 18, 2014.  That Exchange is eventually going to be the only legitimate exchange for pricing gold and silver.  London and COMEX are soon to be history or of considerably less importance.

China, while not technically qualified, was allowed entry into the International Monetary Fund's basket of fiat currencies known as the SDR [Special Drawing Rights - likely to replace the US fiat Federal Reserve "dollar" as the world reserve currency for transacting business.]  China has been calling the financial shots behind the scenes for the past few years.  In May 2014, China's Xu Luode gave a speech to the LBMA in which he announced to the world two important pieces of information:

  • Shanghai gold will change the current gold market consumption in the East

    as is priced in the West.
  • When China will have a right to speak in the international gold market,

    pricing will be revealed.

There you have it.  China will be the final arbiter for the price of silver and gold, and not a day sooner than China says so.  That speech was in 2014, almost three years ago.  China moves at its own pace, slowly and deliberately to make sure there are no mistakes in what they do and how they take act.

There has been no attempt to broach other triggering issues [to push silver higher], such as the non-stop creation of trillions upon trillions of newly created debt by Obama and his neocon crew, as well as the separate prospects for war.  The neocons and the Pentagon are in dire need of a war to feed their insatiable demand for increased budgets and priming the military pump.  War is extremely profitable for the globalists, and making more money is their only concern.  Additionally, lots of people will die in the process [culling the unwanted masses], and war leads to even greater losses of individual freedoms.

Both of these factors, debt and war, are additional guarantees for higher prices to come in silver and gold.  Those holding physical precious metals will fare the best with all of the fragile and dangerous uncertainties facing the world.

Silver is going considerably higher, count on it.  If you have it, the question of when does not matter because you will be prepared for the inevitable.  If you do not have any, it will not matter because you either will not be able to purchase it, or the rise will be so strong and so swift you will be priced out of the market.

Dealing with your future financial security and wealth preservation should not be treated like a casino where one takes chances.

It is highly unlikely the next few generations will ever see silver or gold at these current price levels again.  Those who own physical PMs can rest comfortably, even for those who paid much higher prices, for whenever the trigger event happens, their higher priced buys will look like prescient purchases, in hindsight.

Those holding paper, be it faux fiat currency, stocks, bonds, PM ETFs will be left holding the bag, and a paper one of their own choosing.  Free choice comes with consequences.

We will now take a look at the charts which suggest, across the board, any price rise in PMs is not on the immediate horizon.  However, as a constant reminder, there is no guarantee you will be able to buy either silver of gold at some point in the future, either before or after any major price rise occurs.  Better a year too early than a day too late.

As your own financial advisor, are you willing to take that risk?

Silver and gold are the antithesis to globalist fiat currency.  Plans are well along for replacing the fiat Federal Reserve Note, deceptively called a "dollar."  At some point, perhaps the next year to three [and it could be more, the globalists and China are not saying], the dollar will either undergo massive devaluation or simply disappear to be replaced by the IMF's SDR [yet another fiat Ponzi scheme in the making], or by the issuing of a new kind of "dollar."  Either way, those holding paper assets will lose out, big time.

So we start with a chart of the Fed's "dollar."  The "dollar" is strong by default; there is nothing yet to replace it, so countries are still forced to use it as an [un]safe haven. Lacking any other choice, it will continue to rally in its defined up trend.  As noted on the chart, for as long as this index remains strong, silver will not rally sharply against it.

The higher time frames are the most reliable for identifying trends, and trend changes take much longer to unfold.  At present, there is no standout feature on the monthly that would indicate a change in trend is developing.  A weak argument can be made that the late 2015 lows could hold, but with the prevailing trend still pointing down, the possibility of another lower low cannot be ruled out.

The question as to when silver will start to rally higher, in earnest, is not to be found in the charts, which are a snapshot of current developing market activity.  As stated above, the when question is not as important as the ongoing availability and ability to continue purchasing and personally holding the physical metal.  

As a wealth preserver, Precious Metals have no rival, for the average person - [who cannot afford museum quality art or large, debt-free real-estate holdings].  Keep accumulating is the main theme, here.  One will not regret the buying and holding during the when phase, but once price does take off, one will regret not having acted, at all or enough.

Our position is to show you the current developing market as a way to understand that price shows no near-term likelihood of going above $26-$28, or higher, to consider your situation against market conditions and what is going on in the tumultuous world that can, and will lead to much higher prices.  Patience and deliberate buying and accumulating silver [and gold] will have its just rewards.

There has been no retest yet of the December 2016 lows, so one cannot say that the trend has changed even on the daily chart, despite the current rally.  While price has risen consistently since the low, there is no EUM, Ease of Upward Movement, always found in an uptrend.

The current prices are artificially low as a result of Western banking suppression to hide the fragile condition of fiat paper currencies by all [technically and realistically bankrupt] Western banks.  Once China decides to take action, it is game over for these low prices, and possibly game over for being able to purchase silver under the Orwellian dictates of Western governments seeking to control every aspect of your life.

Courtesy of edgetraderplus.com

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Michael Noonan, of Edgetraderplus, is a chart analyst with 30 years experience in the futures markets.  His focus is entirely on reading developing market activity in the form of price and volume, to better understand what the markets are saying coming from what is the best source of all information: the market itself. His website is http://edgetraderplus.com.

Silver has 47 protons and 61 neutrons