Stocks Sold Off And Retraced Last Week's Advance, Will They Continue Down?

March 26, 2015

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral

Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral

Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost between 1.6% and 2.3% on Wednesday, retracing last week's move up, as investors intensified their selloff. The S&P 500 index broke below support level of 2,080-2,090, as it got further away from late February all-time high at 2,119.59. The nearest important support level is at 2,040-2,050, marked by early March local lows, among others. for now, it looks like some further medium-term consolidation following October-November rally:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.6-1.0%. The European stock market indexes have lost 1.2-1.5% so far. Investors will now wait for the Initial Claims number release at 7:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is within an intraday downtrend as it trades below yesterday's low. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,050. On the other hand, potential support level is at 2,030, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday downtrend, following a breakout below the level of 4,300. The nearest important level of resistance is at 4,300-4,320, and support level is at 4,250-4,260, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market accelerated its short-term decline yesterday, as it retraced most of last week's move up. For now, it looks like some further medium-term consolidation, following last year's October-November rally. We prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak

Stock Trading Strategist

Stock Trading Alerts

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Paul Rejczak is a stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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