Technical Stock Market Report

November 30, 2013

The good news is:  The small cap indices led the way up last week.

The negatives: There are not any serious negatives.

New highs have not been great, but, they have not been terrible.

The secondaries have been lagging, but, they picked up last week.

The market is overbought with the small cap indices up for the past 6 consecutive days, but, in the slightly longer term that is a positive.

The positives: New highs have been increasing while new lows have remained at non threatening levels.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by (new highs + new lows), (OTC HL Ratio) in red.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month and  dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the neutral 50% level.

OTC HL Ratio rose to an extremely high 92% last week.

There are trading systems that impose a No Sell Filter when variations of this indicator are above 80%.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated from NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also had a good week, rising above 80%.

Money Supply (M2)

The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms.

Money supply growth continued to decline last week.

December:  Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in December has been up 62% of the time with an average gain of 2.0%.  During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle December has been up 50% time with an average gain of 0.7% The best December ever for the OTC was 1999 (+22.0%), the worst 2002 (-9.7%).

The average month has 21 trading days.  The chart below has been calculated by averaging the daily percentage change of the OTC for each of the 1st 11 trading days and each of the last 10.  In months when there were more than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle were not counted.  In months when there were less than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle of the month were counted twice.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the 1st trading day and at 5 trading day intervals after that.  The line is solid on the 11th trading day, the dividing point.

In the chart below the blue line shows the average of the OTC in December over all years since 1963 while the green line shows the average during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period.

Since 1928 the SPX has been up 74% of the time in December with an average gain of 1.5%.  During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 71% of the time with an average gain of 0.3%.  The best December ever for the SPX was 1991 (+11.2%) the worst 1931 (-14.5%).

The chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the average daily performance over all years for the SPX in December in red and the performance during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle in green.

Since 1979 the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 79% of the time in December with an average gain of 2.8%.  During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 75% of the time in December with an average gain of 2.6%.  The best December ever for the R2K, 1999 (+11.2%), the worst 2002 (-11.2%).

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the R2K in December in magenta and the performance during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle in green.

Since 1885 the DJIA has been up 70% of the time in December with an average gain of 1.3%.  During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the DJIA has been up 69% of the time in December with an average gain of 1.2%.  The best December ever for the DJIA, 1903 (+10.8%), the worst 1931 (-17.0%).

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the DJIA in December in cyan and the performance during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle in green.

Conclusion: Last week was one of the strongest we have seen in a while.  The secondaries led the way up and the breadth indicators confirmed.  Seasonally, next week has been very strong and the Fed continues to chip in $85B a month.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday December 6 than they were on Friday November 29.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.

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Disclaimer: Mike Burk is an employee and principal of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy.   Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com).  Historical data is from Barron’s and ISI price books.  The views expressed dare provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

You may reproduce these letters provided you include a citation along with a link to the subscription page: http://alphaim.net/signup.html

Mike Burk began developing equity trading systems in the early 1980's.  Through the 1990's he marketed an equity trading system called MIRAT based on breadth indicators, but, primarily new lows.  In the early days of this century he developed the seasonal trading strategies currently used by Alpha Investment Management of Cincinnati.  Mr. Burk has been writing equity market newsletters since the early 1990's.  During the past 10 years the letter observes both breadth and seasonal strategies.
 
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