US Dollar Net Speculator Positions Dropped Last Week to +$34.75 Billion

May 4, 2015

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to cut back on their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a fifth straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $34.75 billion as of Tuesday April 28th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$3.12 billion from the $37.87 billion total long position that was registered on April 21st, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data puts the US dollar speculative level at a new lowest level since December 16th when net positions equaled $34.64 billion.

Weekly Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for just the British pound sterling and the Mexican Peso.

Notable Changes:

  • The euro bets gained sharply by 16,879 contracts to under -200,000 net contracts for the first time since March
  • Japanese yen bets improved for a third week and holds only a small bearish position (-5,493 contracts)
  • Swiss franc bets improved slightly for a 3rd week to raise its small bullish position to +1,335 contracts
  • New Zealand dollar positions gained for a seventh week and rose higher into bullish territory (+10,180 contracts)
  • Mexican Peso bets declined for a 2nd week and fell further into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

460950

50148

271111

10.9

58.8

-220963

-27189

03/31/2015

459746

41709

268269

9.1

58.4

-226560

-5597

04/07/2015

441624

39444

254702

8.9

57.7

-215258

11302

04/14/2015

453518

45264

257611

10

56.8

-212347

2911

04/21/2015

457610

46821

261466

10.2

57.1

-214645

-2298

04/28/2015

456919

50734

248500

11.1

54.4

-197766

16879




British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

178140

35938

74495

20.2

41.8

-38557

-706

03/31/2015

182514

35143

71773

19.3

39.3

-36630

1927

04/07/2015

185219

37641

71942

20.3

38.8

-34301

2329

04/14/2015

189513

33993

70038

17.9

37

-36045

-1744

04/21/2015

175066

34830

64111

19.9

36.6

-29281

6764

04/28/2015

171698

33239

67367

19.4

39.2

-34128

-4847




Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

181026

39156

85061

21.6

47

-45905

2149

03/31/2015

177478

44409

68333

25

38.5

-23924

21981

04/07/2015

189444

53320

77769

28.1

41.1

-24449

-525

04/14/2015

195230

54783

77853

28.1

39.9

-23070

1379

04/21/2015

189332

51520

65968

27.2

34.8

-14448

8622

04/28/2015

188079

48721

54214

25.9

28.8

-5493

8955




Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

36296

12604

16559

34.7

45.6

-3955

-6190

03/31/2015

34149

13679

12973

40.1

38

706

4661

04/07/2015

33245

12746

12626

38.3

38

120

-586

04/14/2015

33935

12240

12070

36.1

35.6

170

50

04/21/2015

31727

11105

10770

35

33.9

335

165

04/28/2015

31585

11144

9809

35.3

31.1

1335

1000




Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

106731

19193

51849

18

48.6

-32656

166

03/31/2015

110447

18771

48389

17

43.8

-29618

3038

04/07/2015

114881

22081

52100

19.2

45.4

-30019

-401

04/14/2015

118686

23020

53598

19.4

45.2

-30578

-559

04/21/2015

126801

33343

60394

26.3

47.6

-27051

3527

04/28/2015

128938

33858

54767

26.3

42.5

-20909

6142




Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

135693

52079

80447

38.4

59.3

-28368

439

03/31/2015

138260

55814

80170

40.4

58

-24356

4012

04/07/2015

159532

55928

96209

35.1

60.3

-40281

-15925

04/14/2015

161971

55077

97510

34

60.2

-42433

-2152

04/21/2015

153363

55570

90233

36.2

58.8

-34663

7770

04/28/2015

140298

53753

81158

38.3

57.8

-27405

7258




New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

20958

12149

13015

58

62.1

-866

275

03/31/2015

24049

16443

12412

68.4

51.6

4031

4897

04/07/2015

24920

16950

11172

68

44.8

5778

1747

04/14/2015

25176

17081

11078

67.8

44

6003

225

04/21/2015

26617

18473

9985

69.4

37.5

8488

2485

04/28/2015

28071

18281

8101

65.1

28.9

10180

1692




Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Pct OI Specs Long

Pct OI Specs Short

Net Specs

Weekly Chg

03/24/2015

150320

35044

76144

23.3

50.7

-41100

14839

03/31/2015

157688

43289

73578

27.5

46.7

-30289

10811

04/07/2015

151072

42185

65110

27.9

43.1

-22925

7364

04/14/2015

130501

63521

55160

48.7

42.3

8361

31286

04/21/2015

118074

50343

64018

42.6

54.2

-13675

-22036

04/28/2015

138497

38003

61394

27.4

44.3

-23391

-9716




*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

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Courtesy of http://countingpips.com/

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