Bullion to continue upside on weak rupee, Base metals to trade upbeat

MUMBAI-INDIA (Aug 19)   Bullion counter may continue upside momentum continuing last week gains tracking firm international markets on domestic bourses weakness in local currency rupee will cap the downside. Gold can move in range of 30600-31300 MCX. Silver can move in range of 50000-52000 in MCX.

Gold may extend a rally through to the end of December, paring the first full-year loss since 2000, as rising physical demand across Asia helps to counter a selloff in exchange-traded products led by billionaire John Paulson. Bullion rebounded since reaching a 34-month low in June as demand for jewelry, bars and coins soared from India to China and Turkey. The rally may help stem the outflow from exchange-traded products, or ETPs, after gold plunged 23 percent last quarter, the most since at least 1920.

Base Metals: Base metal complex may remain buoyant as weak local currency may keep the prices upbeat. Copper may trade in range of 465-478 in MCX. Lead may trade in range of 138-145 while zinc may trade in range of 123-126 in near term. Aluminum may remain in range of 118-124.

Hedge funds and other money managers are betting on rising copper prices, breaking a 24-week bearish streak, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed. The shift comes as solid global economic data and falling stockpiles have fanned hopes of higher demand for the industrial metal.

Energy: Crude oil counter can trade sideways in range of 6700-6800. West Texas Intermediate oil swung between gains and losses after rising to the highest price in two weeks. WTI surged 8.8 percent in July, the most since August 2012, as Egypt’s army deposed Mohamed Mursi as president. The country controls the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, through which a combined 4.51 million barrels a day of crude and refined products were shipped between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean last year, according to the Energy Information Administration. Natural gas may witness bounce back from lower levels and can test 216 in MCX.