Bullion may trade on positive path; Base metals to trade up

MUMBAI-INDIA (Aug 8)  Bullion counter may open on positive path tracking firm international markets. On domestic bourses marginal strength in the local currency rupee can cap the upside to some extent. Gold can move in range of 27500-28000 in MCX. Silver can move in range of 41000-42000 in MCX. Gold advanced before a report today that may show U.S. jobless claims increased, potentially delaying moves by the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of bond purchases. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said yesterday there has been “meaningful improvement” in the labor market and tapering may be warranted if it continues to strengthen. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to 910.53 metric tons yesterday, the lowest since February 2009, according to data on the fund’s website. Holdings are down 440.29 tons this year.

Base Metals: Base metal complex may trade with upside bias as initial jobless claim data will give further direction to the prices. Copper climbed to the highest level in seven weeks after trade data in China, the biggest user, exceeded analyst estimates. Shipments abroad rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said in Beijing today. Imports advanced 10.9 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $17.8 billion.

The government signaled last month that it will defend its 7.5 percent economic-growth target for the year after expansion slowed for a second quarter. Copper may trade in range of 427-440 in MCX. Lead may trade in range of 128-132 while zinc may trade in range of 111-114 in near term. Aluminum may remain in range of 107-109.

Energy: Crude oil counter can trade sideways while natural gas may trade in range of 195-208 in MCX. U.S. gasoline inventories climbed by 135,000 barrels last week, said the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. They were projected to fall by 500,000 barrels.

Crude production rose to almost 7.6 million barrels a day last week, the highest since December 1989, the EIA said. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures and the largest oil storage hub in the U.S, fell by 2.2 million barrels last week to 39.9 million barrels, the EIA said.