Expect big silver price surge if gold stays positive
San Francisco (Oct 14) What a difference 10 days makes. A little over a week ago the gold market was all doom and gloom with the yellow metal crashing back below $1200 an ounce. But with a few extraneous geopolitical and global health factors positively impacting the market, and the possibility of a general stock market crash in the minds of investors, gold has seen positive action on the price front in something of a safe haven turnaround. But silver, on the other hand, has hardly moved at all. Compare the 30-day kitco gold and silver charts below – courtesy kitco.com and kitcosilver.com .
Historically, silver prices have sharply outperformed gold when precious metals prices are rising, and sharply underperformed when they are falling yet this pattern on the upside has just not yet started to appear. But if the recent gold price rise isn’t just a blip then we would expect silver to start to move upwards – and move upwards fast.
After all, as we pointed out in our recent article looking at silver supply and demand – see: Silver in supply deficit but price unmoved so far there is no big surplus of silver coming to the market although admittedly there have been some strange movements in and out of the big silver ETFs which could affect short term supplies.
Most recently perhaps the most respected silver analyst, Ted Butler, who scrutinises such matters more closely than anyone else, commented “There was some unusual activity in the big silver ETF, SLV, this week as 4 million oz were withdrawn. I say unusual because deposits into and withdrawals from SLV have been somewhat counterintuitive recently, namely, deposits have come on price weakness and withdrawals on (relative) price strength. One would normally expect the opposite to occur.”