Global economy shaky and cavalry may not come
London (Feb 17) Eight years after the financial crisis, the world is coming to grips with an unpleasant realization: Serious weaknesses still plague the global economy, and emergency help may not be on the way.
Sinking stock prices, flat inflation and the bizarre phenomenon of negative interest rates have coupled with a downturn in emerging markets to raise worries that the economy is being stalked by threats that central banks — the saviors during the crisis — may struggle to cope with.
Meanwhile, commercial banks are again a source of concern, especially in Europe. Banks were the epicenter of the 2007-09 crisis, which started over excessive loans to homeowners with shaky credit in the United States and then swept the globe into recession.
Some of the recent tumult may be an overreaction by investors. And the rock-bottom interest rates are partly a result of easy money policies by central banks doing their best to stimulate growth.
Unemployment is low in several major economies — 4.9 percent in the United States and 4.5 percent in Germany. The IMF forecasts growth picking up from 3.1 percent last year to 3.4 percent this year.
But that's still far short of the 5.1 percent growth in 2007, before the crisis. The realization is dawning that growth may continue to disappoint, and that recent turmoil may be more than just normal market volatility.
In the United States, long-term market rates are sliding again, even though the Federal Reserve has begun pushing them higher. That's alarming because such low or negative rates are way out the ordinary. For one thing, they suggest investors don't expect much economic growth.
Some of the risks that markets have been waking up to:
* CHINA — A sharp slowdown in China threatens to remove a pillar of global growth. Slackening demand for raw materials there is hitting producers of oil and metals in other countries. Energy exporter Russia, for instance, slid into recession and its currency has plunged.
German automaker Daimler made a record operating profit last year, helped by a 41 percent surged in sales in China for its Mercedes-Benz luxury cars. But its shares fell when it announced a cautious outlook for only a slight profit increase for this year and "more moderate" growth in China.
* EMERGING MARKETS, SUBMERGING — Money is flowing out of so-called emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Turkey. Investors pulled $735 billion out of such countries in 2015 — the first year of net outflows since 1988, according to the Institute of International Finance.
And emerging markets aren't so emerging anymore: They provide 70 percent of expected global growth.
Central banks led by the U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the global recession by slashing interest rates and printing money. That encouraged investors in search of higher returns to place their money in emerging markets.
Now the Fed is trying to push up its interest rates, and those flows have gone into reverse, causing financial markets and currencies in emerging markets to sag. Debt becomes harder to repay.
* UNITED STATES — The U.S. is showing signs of weakness. Maybe not a recession, yet, but growth was a weak 0.7 annually during the fourth quarter. Factory output has declined.
Though unemployment has dropped, wages have not recovered quickly and companies appear to be unsettled by the global jitters.
A rising dollar — a side effect of expected Fed interest rate increases — could hurt exporters. That's one reason the Fed may, in fact, hold off raising rates again soon.
* BANKS — Bank stocks have been plunging in the United States and Europe.
In the U.S., low oil prices may mean companies involved in expensive drilling and extraction will be unable to repay loans made to dig wells that are no longer profitable.
In Europe, bank shares have been shaken by the bailout of four Italian lenders and fears about $1.35 trillion in bad loans across the 19-country currency union.
* RETURN-FREE RISK — Low rates help people pay mortgages and buy cars. But there's some concern that they suppress spending by savers, and may steer investment to less productive uses. The typical $87,900 in savings held by a household with a member over 65 would have earned $3,500 in 1995, but only returns $175 now, estimated Richard Katz, editor at the Oriental Economist.