Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: June 6 - 10
New York (Jun 5) Gold prices surged more than 2% on Friday, its biggest one day gain in nearly three months, as the U.S. dollar plunged after the release of dismal U.S. nonfarm payrolls data dampened optimism over the strength of the economy and lowered expectations for a summer rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy added just 38,000 jobs in May, the smallest gain since September 2010 and far below expectations for an increase of 164,000. The economy created 123,000 jobs in April, whose figure was revised from a previously gain of 160,000, the Labor Department said Friday.
Also Friday, the Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index fell to 52.9 last month from 55.7 in April. It was the weakest reading since February 2014. Analysts had expected the index to drop to 55.5.
The downbeat data likely pushed a June interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve off the table, with traders pricing in just a 4% chance for a rate hike this month, down from 21% ahead of the data, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool.
Odds for a July rate hike dropped to 32% from 58% a day earlier, while September odds were at about 48%, compared to 66% on Thursday.
Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. interest rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.
The U.S. dollar plunged to a three-week low against a basket of major currencies on Friday, as investors pushed back expectations for the next U.S. rate hike.
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, crashed to 93.86, a level not seen since May 12, before closing at 93.90, down 1.74% for the day.
Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Gold for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rallied to a daily high of $1,247.40 a troy ounce, the most since May 23. It ended the week at $1,242.90, up $30.30, or 2.5%, on the day.
For the week, gold futures gained $26.20, or 2.1%, the first weekly increase in a month.
Prices of the precious metal have been under pressure in recent weeks, falling to a low of $1,199.00 on May 31 as hawkish comments from Fed officials as well as minutes of the Fed's April meeting have convinced many analysts and investors that a rate hike in June or July is a real possibility.
In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Monday for further clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.
The last full week before the Fed’s June 14-15 meeting is relatively light on data, with most of the focus likely to fall on consumer sentiment figures on Friday to gauge the health of the economy.
Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for July delivery rose 34.0 cents, or 2.12%, on Friday to settle at $16.36 a troy ounce. On the week, silver futures tacked on 14.5 cents, or 0.59%, snapping a four-week losing streak.
Also on the Comex, copper for July delivery jumped 4.3 cents, or 2.08%, on Friday to end at $2.113 a pound. For the week, however, New York-traded copper prices dipped 0.1 cents, or 0.09%.
China is to release what will be closely-watched trade and inflation data later this week amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 45% of world consumption.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, June 6
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia.
Tuesday, June 7
The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its interest rate decision.
The U.S. is to release revised data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs.
Wednesday, June 8
China is to release a closely-watched report on the trade surplus.
The U.K. will publish data on manufacturing production.
The U.S. is to produce data on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Thursday, June 9
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also slated to announce its rate decision and publish a rate statement.
China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to speak at the Brussels Economic Forum.
The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, June 10
German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is due to speak about monetary, financial, and fiscal stability at the Bundesbank Spring Conference, in Germany.
The U.S. is to round up the week with data on consumer sentiment.