Gold At Year Highs, Silver Strong, Crude Sluggish
New York (Aug 3) Gold has comfortably gotten to year highs without any hiccups. It continues to be strong. I expect a correction here and I'm out of my longs. I'm still long-biased but would be buying a dip from here. I expect a dip towards 1350-1360 area, but this does not mean going short is viable. Counter-trend is a consistently losing strategy for most. Gold is very extended on the moving averages and it usually respects moving averages.
Current call: Exit longs/Buy on dips
Silver has been extremely strong. It is very close to its year highs. Silver has risen almost 50% from its lows near $14. This shows how fruitful value investing is.
Anyway, without diverging too much, silver looks good and looks like it could easily move towards 21 before we see any sort of correction. It's giving good 1-1.5% moves and seems to be grinding higher now. If you want to get in, it's probably too late, wait for a correction or a consolidation.
Current call: Avoid
Crude continued its move lower and is dangerously close to support. Today, with inventory, we could see the direction crude is heading in for the next week. If you're short, booking profits ahead of inventory would be the right way to trade. I'm very positive about a reversal from support and will be watching what crude does in that area very closely.
While bottom-picking is tough, there is no harm in taking a shot with a lighter position. As soon as crude shows signs of reversal, getting heavier is what I would do.