No “V.”

August 6, 2020

These pictures are worth thousands of words:

Unemployment: No “V.”

Or expressed this way:

Still no “V.”

Workplace activity: No “V.”

Total business reopenings on Yelp: No “V.”

Percentage of all restaurants reopened for indoor dining: No “V.”

Consumer confidence: No “V.”

(Also, no wonder, given everything shown here.)

Consumer spending: No “V.”

Manufacturing: No “V.”

Bankruptcies: No “V.”

Tightening of consumer credit: No “V.”

Tightening of commercial credit: No “V.”

How bad was it, relative to economic decline in other recessions?

Big whoops. Not going to be a “V.”

GDP crash annualized:

Or not annualized:

Whoops just as big! Still not going to be a “V.”

Total GDP (as opposed to GDP “growth”):

Biggest drop in total US GDP on record!

No “V!”

“V” for “victory” in stocks?

Well, hold on …

Though there is clearly no “V” in the economy, there has been a “V” in stocks (though it appears to be starting to sputter out); but how does this rocket rally compare to famous “bear-market rallies” that plunged even lower in the end, and how long did those rallies endure before stocks fell even lower?

This stock rally has climbed a steeper trajectory than others, but it has had FAR more Fed fuel than any in history. Yet, it has still not reached as high so far as some if the other big ones are expressed in today’s dollars and graphed for when they would have ended if they began when this one did.


David Haggith started writing about the economy after he predicted The Great Recession half a year before it hit and was puzzled as to why no economists or stocks analysts saw it coming. In the months after the crisis broke out, he started to write humorous editorials in a series titled “Downtime,“ which chided the U.S. government and bankers who should have seen the economic collapse coming but whose cronyism, greed and ineptitude caused them to run the world into a ditch. Those articles were published in The Hudson Valley Business JournalThe Valley City Times-Record (North Dakota), and The Daily Herald in Tennessee. Haggith is dedicated to regularly criticizing the daily news — not just the content but the uncritical, unthinking nature of almost all of the reporting. He now writes his own blog, The Great Recession Blog, to break down the news as an equal-opportunity critic toward both Republicans and Democrats / Conservatives and Liberals … since neither kind of politician has done anything worthwhile to plot a better economic course. His articles are regularly carried by several economic websites.

The Fourth Coinage Act of 1873 embraced the gold standard and demonetized silver, known as the “Crime of 73”

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