Silver, Silver/Gold Ratio, and Party Time

NFTRH 891 excerpt: Silver & Silver/Gold ratio lead a holiday event

Excerpted from the November 30th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:

Silver, Silver/Gold & Party Time

Well, it happens. There will be times when my favored scenarios do not play out. In the current case, one of three possibilities (one of two that were favored) is disqualified and it is entirely possible – with holiday seasonal caveats – that the least favored case will play out. Allow me to dive deeper and review the options.

1. Broad correction continues (incl. precious metals), finds a hard bottom significantly lower prior to a face ripper of a rally. DISQUALIFIED
2. Correction is all done and the anticipated holiday party has already begun. This had been the least favored. If this option were to unfold, it was expected to be shorter and less intense than a recovery rally from option 1. IN PROGRESS but holiday caveats aside, the impulsiveness (of silver, especially) suggests power and potential FOMO incoming.
3. Correction is all done and the precious metals lead the whole mess higher, continuing the bull market in the PMs and targeting SPX (nominal) measurement of 7400 before stocks under-perform and a potential “inflation trade” rotates in. VIABLE

That would be a representation of the 1970s, per the chart above. I had expected it to manifest sometime in 2026, but it is possible that internals rotations toward the “inflation trade” will start sooner. Reference recent articles (and recent work in NFTRH):

Commodities and the Next Major Macro Phase (11.16.25)

A Look Ahead As Gold Stocks Resume Rally, Broad Market Shakes Off Mini Correction (11.26.25)

You may know I can be a cautious sort. But keeping in mind that it is the holidays and market signals are not what they will be for most of a given year, option 3 did take a step forward. However, it will be wise to keep in mind that after this profitable year, many people may be tempted to take profits pushed into the 2026 tax year, after January 1st.

But today’s signals are electing the year-end bull case (Captain Obvious) and holidays or not, our task is to interpret, manage and profit from it. Per an NFTRH+ update (password protected) on 11.26.25:

I don’t want to use holiday seasonals or any other excuse. In being open to, even favoring a hard decline to clear the sentiment pipes, if the Silver/Gold ratio takes out its double top, the party is back on, sooner rather than later and one of my favored scenarios will have proven wrong.

That update showed these charts of the Silver/Gold and Gold/Silver ratios threatening their double top/bottom scenarios. They went on to do this.

That my friends, when taken at face value is, well, hit it boys…

Party on!!

And so for silver, forget the SMA 200, the gap, and the would-be deeper Fibonacci retrace levels. The double top, complete with negative RSI divergence, played out to the 50 day average only before ramming to a new all-time high. I added PSLV after making the Nov. 26 update linked above. On silly-seasonal Friday it followed through to a new all-time high. Now silver must prove itself in a non-holiday week.

NFTRH 891 then went on to cover a variety of metals, stocks and markets that would use the combination of the Silver/Gold ratio and the TSX-V/TSX ratio (discussed later in the report) as bullish guides. Some stocks have already gotten started, while others are still on the pad. As such, #891 was chart intensive, and not just for precious metal and commodity/resources stocks.

We also went on to further define the short and intermediate-term situations, all with the awareness that it is holiday silly season. We have long expected a year-end rally. But its nature is becoming clear and that definition needs to be verified and kept in mind the whole way. I believe the party whipping up now may be an impulse to the real play, an “inflation trade”, which could show up and persist in 2026.

It is time to evaluate the short-term and its suspect holiday theme that, suspect or not, is now bullish. This may be a fleeting impulse to what is ahead or it may be the start of what is ahead. Whatever it is, it is and has been profitable to this point.

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