Chris Ciovacco

Articles by Chris Ciovacco

 As we prepare to close the books on 2013, investors are being hit with a variety of financial forecasts for 2014. Are we better off basing investment decisions on forecasts or a method based on observing, tracking, and adjusting?...
Systemic Fear Not As High As It Once WasWhy was the stock market able to break out from the 13-year consolidation pattern we covered last Friday? The bigger picture answer may lie in the answers to these five sub-questions:Does...
Fundamentals And Technicals AlignBefore we examine how long bull markets can last, it should be noted the bulls have the fundamental and technical stars aligned for a year-end rally in stocks. From a probability perspective, the best time...
 Friday’s Report Helps Investors Feel More ConfidentWe have been stating for some time the Federal Reserve was using quantitative easing (QE) as monetary lighter fluid to get the economic fire started again. The Fed...
Sustainable, But Not Normal YetThe taper surprise was that stocks rocketed higher once the markets digested the Fed’s statement. The market chose to focus on the improving economy rather than a reduction in monetary stimulus. From The...
Fed Lost Control In 2008In early December, we used Japan as an extreme example of why central banks are terrified of allowing their respective economies to slip into a deflationary spiral. Do the same concepts apply to the United...
Waning Bullish ConvictionStronger economyTaper odds increasingBullish trends are more vulnerableRetail Data Exceeded ExpectationsThe Federal Reserve has been looking for noticeable improvement in the economy to allow them to begin paring...
Minutes Show Another Stimulative Tool Being ConsideredWe made the case on July 30 the Fed’s desire to taper is about bubble management rather than confidence in the economy. Hard evidence aligning with a “the Fed is still...
 Default Risk vs. Interest Rate RiskWhen bond investors are worried about the economy and default risks, it is concerning for stock investors. When bond investors are worried about rising interest rates, it is much less concerning for...
Conflicting Statements And Mixed MessagesIf you follow the markets closely, you have probably asked yourself at some point why does the Fed keep sending mixed messages? If we think in extremes, we can understand the Fed’s rationale....

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