Silver Editorials & Commentary

We warned you that the bear would assume any guise necessary to mask his goal of savaging the multitude of investors as a possible bear market unfolds. An lo, along comes a story blithely helpful to this purpose in the Wall Street Journal, a mighty instrument of...

For the past 15 – 40 years, debt and prices in most markets have moved upward, broadly speaking, in exponential trends. See the following log-scale graphs. US T-Bonds: T-Bonds have been rallying in their bull market since the early 1980’s. Will they continue,...

As the Fed nears its proposed first rate hike in nine years the stock market is becoming frantic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 10% on the year, as markets digest the troubling reality that our central bank may be raising interest rates into an...

Something quite interesting took place in the silver market -- and I believe few investors realize the significance. After looking over the data, I came across some fascinating evidence that shows just how fearful individuals are about investing in the paper...

Silver is on major sell signal since 2011. Short term is on sell signal. COT data is favorable for a bear market bounce.

Current investing model favors bonds over equities, therefore, investors should overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety. Cash is also a position for those who are un-invested or under invested until this model favors equities again.

There was apparently an intervention on Monday and the sellers went home. This period of weakness needs to resolve itself, but it is going to take a little longer than it would have if the market were allowed to crash.

Having just finished contemplating and describing the fear and volatility left over from the previous week, I felt predisposed to signs of ‘smoke’ everywhere I looked. Freeway traffic patterns, police action, geological activity, tremors, vibrations…

The energy systems which drove the global stock market rout have been building for months and years, and by the spring of this year, the danger flags were clearly flying. Indeed, as I wrote in May of 2015 in an analysis titled "A Financial "Perfect Storm" May Be...

This month has seen something that happens not very often: it appears to be the early stages of a global stock market crash. For the moment investors are in shock, seeking reassurance and keenly intent on preserving their diminishing assets, instead of reflecting on...

Considering all of the Fed stimulus and eternal deferral of the dreaded rate hike, action on the NYSE is not responding according to the recipe of asset inflation. Chronic accommodation is now about as effective as catnip on an 18-year old housecat.

The broad stock market retraced some of its recent move down yesterday, however, it still trades within a volatile short-term consolidation, following relatively large sell-off. Our late April's short position's (2,098.27, S&P 500 index) profit target has been...

Back when society's balance sheet was reasonably solid, the occasional bear market was no big deal. A 20% drop in the average S&P 500 stock would scare investors and lead to slight declines in consumer spending and government capital gains tax revenue, but the...

Before you look at the charts below and say "hey this is easy...now is the time to buy", keep in mind the first two charts show similar CCM Market Model readings within the context of a bull market. The same model readings were present numerous times between October...

The global financial system is now getting out of control. While the clowns on the financial networks continue to regurgitate the same bullish propaganda, “that everything will be fine”, quite the opposite is the case. The system is so broken and the leverage...

Dr. Copper apparently does not approve of the prescription ordered by the Chinese authorities to stem the slowdown in that nation, namely another 25 basis point interest rate reduction and a lowering of bank reserve requirements.

The course of an economy is determined by the course of that economy's money supply (broadly determined). The relationship between money growth and nominal GDP growth is presented in the accompanying chart. It is persuasive. Indeed, money, not fiscal policy,...

The Dow Index has been smashed over the last week, which has brought out the usual doom and gloomers predicting Armageddon once again. There are several so called experts now predicting a 1929 style bear market.

Volatility in Chinese markets has hit the global markets and will spill over into the US. We have a big selloff in emerging economies. In dollar terms many emerging markets have tumbled.

I have been writing about consumption of capital, using the example of a farmer who sells off his farm to buy groceries. It’s a striking story, because people don’t normally act like this. Of course, there are self-destructive people in every society, but, not many...

In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified. Our intraday outlook is now neutral as is our short-term outlook. However, our medium-term outlook is now bearish:

Japan was recently slammed with more bad economic news; growth contracted yet again in the second quarter. Gross Domestic Product for the world’s third largest economy fell by an annualized 1.6% in the three months ended in June.

Many have mistakenly dismissed silver as just another commodity like oil. For example: If one looks at how silver has traded since 2001, in comparison with oil, one might agree with that mistaken belief. Below is a comparison of silver and oil since 2001 (charts...

I will attempt to make the case for how one might go about turning one billion dollars into five billion dollars by buying silver. At first, some of my specific points might seem to be at odds with my long held argument that fully paid for positions in the actual...

The week before the crash in 1987 was, like this past week, a bad one for the market and, like this past week, Friday was the worst day of the week. The following Monday the market crashed. On that infamous Black Monday October 19, 1987, stock markets around the...

Silver is on major sell signal since 2011. Short-term is on buy signal. Another bear market bounce is in progress.

Current investing model favors bonds over equities, therefore, investors should overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety. Cash is also a position for those who are un-invested or under invested until this model favors equities again.

The course of an economy is determined by the course of that economy's money supply (broadly determined). The relationship between money growth and nominal GDP growth is presented in the accompanying chart. It is persuasive. Indeed, money, not fiscal policy,...

After yesterday’s selloff, we might benefit from pondering market psychology right now. Even if we get it wrong, merely knowing by how much could be of use later. My take in recent months has been that short-covering constitutes the only source of buying power — i.e...

There are fundamentals. And then there is legalized betting, ultimately backed by you, the tax payer. Otherwise known as speculative trades. Modern day commodity prices are determined by the latter, rather than by the result of trading based on the former.

The US Federal Reserve is playing with the idea of raising interest rates, possibly as early as September this year. After a six-year period of virtually zero interest rates, a ramping up of borrowing costs will certainly have tremendous consequences. It will be...

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.7-0.9% on Wednesday, retracing their recent move up, as investors reacted to the FOMC's Minutes release, among others. Our yesterday's bearish intraday outlook has proved accurate.

In a surprising update, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported one of the largest single-day withdrawals of silver off its exchange today. As of yesterday, the total amount of silver stored at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was 256 metric tons (mt). If we...

It’s always refreshing to see the stock market get the crap kicked out of it, even if it will take a 10,000-point fall in the Dow to cast out the thieves, thimble-riggers, broad-tossers, carny men, grifters, mountebanks and child molesters who have ruled the global...

Silver prices hit a low of about $14.33 on July 24 after High Frequency Traders had run stops that week. It has happened before and will again. Occasionally they will run stops going up, not down. The gold to silver ratio has been hovering around 75.

The US Energy Information Administration released their weekly data this morning as usual. The reaction to the data from crude oil was anything but the usual. Most everyone in the industry was looking for a draw in crude oil stockpiles especially after yesterday...

Crude oil bounced off the recent low and the key support line, closing the day slightly below the March low. Taking this fact into account, and combining with the current position of the indicators (and another weekly drop in crude oil inventories showed by the API...

One of the reasons US stocks have had such a nice run is that public companies have been making a lot of money. The profit bounce from Great Recession lows was both big and fast, taking corporate earnings to record levels both in nominal terms and as a portion of...

It was bound to happen sooner or later. And this month we got it… The WSJ ran its hit piece on silver. The irony was rich. The first chart they ran with was a pristine display of the absolute most bullish short-term indicator one could find.

The price of silver has been crushed during the last four years. Prices are ready to reverse. We will know soon enough after the High-Frequency-Traders have their way with prices for paper silver and gold on the CME. But consider: