Last Friday a photograph of a dress, whose exact colors were in doubt and became the subject of much debate, dominated the Internet. Not only is this a perfect example of the inane distractions that the public is fascinated with, but it is also a topic that should...
Silver Editorials & Commentary
Read the latest silver market commentary, editorials, essays and reports about investments and trends in the silver market and the economy in general.
March 9, 2015
We refer to the dollar as a “reserve currency” when referring to its use by other countries when settling their international trade accounts. For example, if Canada buys goods from China, China may prefer to be paid in US dollars rather than Canadian dollars. The US...
The March 1, 2015 article argued that silver has seen its low and that the Dow could still blow-off to 19,700. While all of the charts and their respective indicators suggested a low was in place, I pointed out that, ideally, silver could put in a bullish divergence...
the broad stock market sold off on Friday, as investors reacted to economic data releases. We continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on February 18 at 2,099.16, S&P 500 index), as we expect downward correction or an uptrend reversal. Stop-...
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March 8, 2015
Silver remains stuck in a bearmarket and looks set to make new lows soon, for the same reasons as gold: gathering deflationary forces and continued unwinding of the global carry trade leading to a continuation of the dollar spike, which, as set out in the Gold...
March 7, 2015
There could be a few more days of consolidation. The market will be ready to rally when this period of consolidation ends. i expect the major averages to be higher on Friday March 13 than they were on Friday March 6.
Last week’s positive forecast was a miss...
Signs of The Times: "Traders or investors park bonds by selling them to accomplices with an understanding that they'll repurchase the securities at a later date, in an attempt to skirt capital or internal rules." This is the SEC on rule breakers!
Silver is on major sell signal since 2011. Short term is on sell signal. COT data suggests lower prices overall.
Current investing model favors bonds over equities, therefore, investors should overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety. Cash is also a position for those who are un-invested or under invested until this model favors equities again.
March 6, 2015
The U.S. Mint just released its FY 2014 Annual Report and the total Dollar sales of Silver Eagles surpassed Gold Eagles by a wide margin. Unfortunately, the U.S. Mint’s Annual Reports are based on Fiscal Year accounting, so their figures do not correspond to the...
If you needed upwards of 50ml tonnes of copper over the next 5 years, and had very little production of your own, what would you do? I'm thinking you'd manipulate the market like crazy trying to get everyone to believe there’s a huge surplus instead of a major...
Institutional confidence is akin to gravity. We know it’s there…and we understand a lot about it - but we haven’t yet been able to explain it adequately enough. At least not enough to quantify its relationship - or unify gravity with the other physical forces that...
March 5, 2015
The NASDAQ hit 5,000. Maybe champagne corks were popped. Ok the NASDAQ is still short of the actual March 2000 top of 5,132. So the market still has another 100 points or so to go (high so far in March 2015 is 5,008). But let’s keep things in perspective. The high...
Economic numbers released today show the US Economy contracting. But some of these numbers understate the damage. One of the most important statistic is Unemployment. Government figures show that Initial Claims for Unemployment, and Continuing Claims, both were up...
Richard Maybury has been predicting ‘black swan’ events in his newsletter Early Warning Report for the last two decades. In a recent conversation, he put his finger on something happening around the world. He sees a growing anxiety about global events – “everybody...
The broad stock market continued its short-term move down yesterday. We continue to maintain our speculative short position (S&P 500 index), as we expect downward correction or an uptrend reversal. Stop-loss is at 2,150, and potential profit target is at 1,980....
March 4, 2015
A fascinating study is the psychology that accompanies a prolonged sideways market trend. It also holds insights into what the future likely holds for stock prices.
India had an incredible banner year. The world’s largest democracy, home to 1.25 billion people, was the best-performing emerging market in 2014, delivering over 29 percent. It was followed by the Philippines in second place and Indonesia in third.
March 3, 2015
Stock prices can be analyzed in a number of ways, to determine whether they are high, low, or fairly priced. The Price to Earnings Ratio (PE) takes the most recent price of the shares and divides it by the most recent earnings, usually for the last 12 months. This...
The Footsie has just broken some key support I have been monitoring. We already know from previous analysis of the longer term charts that this bull market is on its knees. So let’s look in close at the daily chart to see what this potential kill shot looks like.
Like many of the important discussions in the economic world today, the negotiations between Greece and its European creditors has become increasingly absurd (see "A Patient Fed Considers Losing Patience" in our latest newsletter). Late on Friday, February 20, in a...
It's Monday morning, and a slew of things are on my mind; as the pitched battle between the “unstoppable tsunami of reality” meets headlong with the most relentless, all-encompassing market manipulation in the history of mankind. More on that in a moment; but first...
Sales of U.S. American Eagle Silver Bullion coins soared last year beating the previous milestone established in 2014, according to U.S. Mint statistics. The U.S. Mint announced that 2014 sales of American Eagle Silver Bullion coins reached 44,006,000 ounces,...
March 2, 2015
Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin audio blog.
In 1982 the artist formally known as Prince released a popular party anthem called “1999”. The song was a premonition that 1999 would be a year we would all aspire to “party like”. It was obvious that Prince was making reference to the excitement associated with...
Over the past week, the U.S. dollar hit a 1 month high against the euro. This move along with the greenback's gains against the Japanese Yen has led many investors to wonder if the dollar will power higher in the coming week. Before we address this question, it is...
Although we are in the TOPPING OUT PHASE, we are not likely to see a strong decline without a series of record breaking sentiment sell signal, trend-revealing indicators. While a few of the indicators have been giving off sell signals, it is not enough to overcome...
Here’s another reader’s original and inspired perspective on the short term effects of consumer price inflation and how it differs from the inflation in speculative finance. This latter type of inflation will ultimately break the system and the currency.
The broad stock market retraced some more of its recent advance on Friday. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals. We continue to maintain our speculative short position (S&P 500 index), as we expect downward correction or an uptrend reversal....
March 1, 2015
Silver has seen its lows, and the Dow may blow off to 19700 by the end of the month, if it were to actually do so. I previously thought that such an event could occur by yearend, but everything is really stretched, almost as if ''they'' are waiting for particular...
How much money do you have in the Bank? I’m not asking your net worth. Rather, whether your net worth is positive or negative, how much do you keep in savings accounts, checking accounts, certificates of deposit, Christmas club, and other accounts with your local...
I have marked this chart with some shaded rectangular boxes that correspond to periods in which the Bollinger bands were contracting. For those who are not familiar with how to interpret the bands, when the width is widening out, volatility is increasing. Generally...
February 28, 2015
Silver is on major sell signal since 2011. Short term is on sell signal. COT data suggests lower prices overall.
Current investing model favors bonds over equities, therefore, investors should overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety. Cash is also a position for those who are un-invested or under invested until this model favors equities again.
February 27, 2015
The broad stock market retraced some of its recent advance yesterday, as short-term volatility slightly increased. There have been no confirmed negative signals. However, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (S&P 500 index), as we expect...
Finance ministers in the Eurozone appear to have had a free lesson in game theory from Professor Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister. At the time of writing Greece's future in the Eurozone is far from secured, but it appears that Greece has achieved...
Crude oil’s various charts suggest that the effects of its recent crash have yet to play out fully and that crude oil may drop to between $30 and $35/barrel in the near/medium-term and perhaps much lower over the long-term.
The price of silver has made a spectacular decline since its high of 2011, but several technical and fundamental conditions now have metals traders wondering whether the decline is over. To that question, we answer with a resounding "yes and no," which really means...
February 26, 2015
Gas prices are some of the highest in the country in San Diego, California, and it still cost me only $2.96 a gallon to fill up my tank last week. There’s an excess of oil supplies, according to analysts. You can see from the chart below that global oil production...












