Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

Regular readers know we have backed up the longer-term bullish case with evidence from defensive consumer staples, the VIX Fear Index, and ETF leadership. Financial markets have almost an infinite number of moving parts. Consequently,...

The stroke of midnight has just passed and the US government has turned into a pumpkin. Well, we wish. In fact the US government like some eternal zombe continues to walk the Earth even without the souls of taxpayers upon which to...

When the world’s present troubles surfaced about five years’ ago, I recall reading articles whose central theme was: “there is excessive debt in the world. The amount of debt in the world exceeds the capacity of the world’s economies to...

The sad truth is that the primary function of the Fed and Treasury has now become the sustention and expansion of disastrous asset bubbles. In fact, while Mr. Bernanke officially acknowledges QEs one through three, the truth is he has...

Most readers are familiar with the market vernacular “extend and pretend.” It’s origins are the U.S. commercial debt market. This is yet another U.S. Ponzi-scheme and debt-bubble being kept alive solely through pretending that most/all...

Little in the way of news has transpired in the past week that could have an impact on the silver market. The main stage has been set for some time, regarding all the known factors affecting silver, to date. There is no need to...

Worst Week Since 2008 Financial Crisis. Below is a quick refresher course on the 2011 events that led to the “most volatile week in stocks since the 2008 financial crisis”. FromWikipedia:

The good news is: The secondaries outperformed the blue chips and there was no build-up of new lows, last week. The negatives: New highs have been deteriorating since May.

The Fed seems to be stuck because of housing market weakness and its associated mortgage backed securities. The repo market appears to be where the stress is most threatening, though hidden from view. These trillion dollar daily...

Chart analysis on T-Bonds, GDS, GDXJ & Silver via videos.

When the world’s largest commodity futures “regulator” releases the results of a five-year probe; one expects to see a detailed, thorough, and well-reasoned analysis. What we see instead is a pathetic exercise in pseudo-logic – which...

Markets hate uncertainty. Washington loves to create uncertainty since it provides leverage in political negotiations.

Over the last few weeks, as the overwhelming majority of economists, reporters, and Wall Street insiders expressed certainty that the Fed would begin to taper its QE program, I did my level best to make the public understand that the...

Last week the price of silver climbed to $23.45 after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman said its huge stimulus program would stay in place. In our previous 2 essays we focused on two important links: the one between gold and oil (http://...

The USTreasury Bond market breakdown is in progress, all part of the general USDollar global rejection that is taking the world by storm. Of course, residents inside the US Dome do not notice, since they only perceive it as the native...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is getting another makeover this week. On Sept. 20, the Dow 30 stock industrial index will replace three of its older components – Alcoa, Bank of America, and Hewlett Packard – and will replace them...

The President of the Europe’s central bank said back in July of 2012 that it would fight rising borrowing costs by doing “whatever it takes” to ensure sovereign bond yields do not spiral out of control. This past week Mr. Bernanke took...

I haven’t shown the following chart since last winter when it appeared the Dow Jones was working on a Head & Shoulder top; hence the three half circles over the 2000, 2007 and our current 2013 advance. With the Dow Jones now...

In all periods silver is giving sell signals. However, Open Interest is gradually rising – giving hope there is a reversal in the not too distant future. SLV – on short term sell signal.

The good news is: All of the major indices hit all time or multi year highs last week. The negatives: While the major indices have been hitting progressively new, higher highs this year they have been doing it with progressively fewer...

There are two distinct advantages derived from reading charts. They are all based on factual information, in the form of executed trades, and they are a short-cut for reading about all the exogenous factors, [mostly fundamental], that...

When an option trader has a long gamma position it means that they benefit from volatility and can rebalance their portfolios’ profitably if the underlying asset moves significantly.

In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible. It’s the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making. 5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good...

I’m again beginning to hear why “this time is different.” I hear hypothesized reasons why Dow theory is an antiquated relic that is no longer relevant. I hear that the manipulative efforts of the Money Masters have made the cycles...

When looking at a chart that shows new 52-week highs and lows, have you ever wondered what is happening with all the other stocks in the index? Where are they in relation to their 52-week high-low range? DecisionPoint.com's "Rel-to-52"...

Imagine the US Fed had a technology called the 'printing press'...SO LIKE ME, the world and its stockbroker thought the US Fed would start trimming QE money-printing this Wednesday.

I know. I know. Warren Buffett is not a market-timer, has no idea what the market will be doing this year, or next, or at any specific time in the future. Or so he says, and the media seems to accept it as fact.

As was expected, at least in this corner, the Fed has decided not to “taper” its bond-buying program known as QE3 of $85 billion a month. The reasoning here was that while there was improvement in the US economy the economic numbers...

Much of what is written in the parallel Gold Market update applies equally to silver and that will not be repeated here. Silver’s major reversal pattern, which, like gold’s, is a Head-and-Shoulders bottom, is different to gold’s in the...

Contrarians take note: The latest issue of Time magazine featured another one of those infamous bull market covers. The bull was displayed rather prominently on the cover under the headline, “How Wall Street Won.”

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