Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other...
Silver Editorials & Commentary
Read the latest silver market commentary, editorials, essays and reports about investments and trends in the silver market and the economy in general.
May 21, 2015
Europe will lead the world into Economic Totalitarianism because government is now desperate to retain the euro. If the euro collapses, so will Brussels. The government exists solely because of the euro.
It is too early to call it a confirmed breakout, but the Bank index has popped above cyclical bull market highs. Weekly MACD and RSI both look good.
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May 20, 2015
We know that most western governments are deficit spending, borrowing heavily, in debt beyond the point of no return and must increase taxes and appropriations from their citizens.
May 19, 2015
While my title was written a bit tongue-in-cheek, it is not terribly far from the truth. As we all know by now, the market triggered the bullish pattern we have been following for weeks. And, for those that remember the “evil plan” I outlined since we came into...
The theme of “bad news is good news” continues as several economic reports weighed on investor sentiment. Recent reports have been disappointing, but this has also served to bolster investors’ belief that the Fed will respond to the weak data by passing on an...
We’re only halfway through the month, but so far the old trading adage “Sell in May and go away” seems a little premature. Last Thursday, the S&P 500 Index closed at new consecutive record highs, topping the previous record set on April 24 and further extending...
I recently published an article projecting possible prices for gold in the year 2020 based on the S&P 500 Index and the ever increasing population adjusted US national debt. I assumed three scenarios and three different gold projections.
In capitalist economies, capital, i.e. ‘money’, is created by central banks in the form of credit; and the cost of that credit—central bank interest rates—determines the rate of economic growth. In the end game, however, this is not so.
May 18, 2015
Of all the indexes I cover, there is no other stock market that I am more bearish about than the Japanese index, the Nikkei. But let’s be under no illusions. The massive secular bear market that has been in force since the 1989 top is done and dusted.
Central banks are incapable of saving economies or creating growth. The only thing a central bank can do is create inflation. These market manipulators set forth on a journey seven years ago to save the world by engaging in massive monetary manipulation,...
Capitalizing on the panicked sell-off in junior oil and gas stocks may prove to be a smart move now as oil prices have recovered some 50% since crashing to $42/barrel WTIC in March, whereas many juniors still trade at relatively low levels.
Our monetary system is failing, but explaining that isn’t easy. The most popular argument is that the dollar has falling purchasing power and rising inflation. The problem with this argument is that consumer prices aren’t skyrocketing now. So, of course, people...
New research shows that European banks are as likely to fail today as they were preceding the global economic crash seven years ago.
One of the most important things that anyone who ventures into the arena of trading will need to learn, is how to deal with trades that go sour.
May 16, 2015
Over the last decade of trading precious metals, I have found that gold prices and silver prices adhere to particular cycles. These cycles can make them somewhat predictable. There are three primary timeframes I focus on and in this exclusive article I will attempt...
Last time I wrote, I expected to see new highs on the S&P500. The week before, I submitted a cycle chart where an expected three week cycle top should occur on May 18th. We are within a hair’s breadth of the 2130 target I had for last week and should tag that...
The French stock index, the CAC40, looks to have the final top to its bull market already in place. Let’s analyse the technicals using the weekly, monthly and yearly charts.
The recent period of weakness appears to have ended…and there are still two months of seasonal strength remaining. I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday May 22 than they were on Friday May 15. Last week’s negative forecast was a miss.
Our equity/bond model - This long term reliable investing model provides investors with simple decision making in the markets:
May 15, 2015
The "Perfect Storm" of 1991, as described in the best-selling book by Sebastian Junger, resulted from massive weather systems converging to create the storm of a century. In the financial world at this very moment, we have eight different "weather systems" that are...
Silver has enjoyed a fantastic week, awakening from its bottoming slumber to surge with gold. And this strong silver investment demand is likely only starting. American stock traders and futures speculators control two of the world’s largest pools of capital...
We are presenting the following three charts without comments. We prefer to let the charts speak. Mind that the last breakout attempt of silver was capped by the U.S. dollar rally (starting August 2014). It seems that nothing stands in the way of the grey metal at...
BIG PICTURE – The global economy softened during the first quarter of this year; however, reflationary efforts by the central banks should bring about a pick-up in business activity. At this stage, it is difficult to tell precisely when the economy will accelerate...
It is quite fascinating that the ultimate case for continued equity and bond price growth comes from the unspoken assumption that we will get another round or rounds of QE. This open assumption is that things are so good that we are about to move into perpetual...
May 14, 2015
What is going on with bonds? Over the past few weeks, it appears that bonds are having a massive heart attack. Just a few short weeks ago it appeared that the German Bunds (German bonds are called bunds) were about to plunge under 0%. After all, there was already...
When interest rates are zero and it costs a bank to look after your money it becomes an unattractive asset. Banks in some jurisdictions (such as Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden) are even charging customers interest on cash and deposits. And if you go to your bank...
May 13, 2015
QE is over in the Eurozone! Risk is being reflected in the interest rates, finally! And it looks like the monetary authorities are pretending economic strength, for political reasons, possibly justifying an interest rate hike.
The British General Election, on May 7th, was an epic in two respects. First, in spite of polls forecasting a hung parliament, David Cameron's Conservative Party was given unexpectedly large support, winning 331 seats, or 51 % for an overall majority of four, and...
Silver bullion remains one of the most undervalued commodities and store of value assets in the world today and therefore one of the greatest opportunities. Indeed, we view the opportunity in silver bullion today as very much like that seen in the period from 2003...
Wall Street analysts unanimously cheered last fall when the price of oil fell from nearly $100 a barrel in June of 2014, to almost $45 a barrel by the end of January 2015. The theory was that the average American family, paying less at the pump, would plow this...
May 12, 2015
- Picasso’s “Les Femme d’Alger” sells for a record $179 million - Most expensive painting ever sold at auction - Hyperinflation in art market as painting appreciated nearly $150 million in 20 years … - Reports in February of the private sale of Gauguin’s “When Will...
May 11, 2015
As I’ve mention previously JPMorgan is still stopping (taking) silver deliveries in its own house account. In the May COMEX futures contract, they’ve taken over three million ounces so far. It still looks like JPM will take another million ounces or so before the...
It’s the news everyone dreads—a call from the hospital. And it’s about one of the most important people in the world…Your mother. [Every ALL-CAPS ITEM below contains silver or is required in its use.] You hear the nurse talking urgently through your TELEPHONE and...
Markets seem to have gotten more bipolar in the past couple of weeks. The US Dollar index has finally had the rollover I was expecting. I’m not assuming yet that that was “it”. The overwhelming consensus on Wall St is still that the greenback has to go higher once...
One must go beyond the ‘Housing Crisis’, ‘Lehman’, ’Dot Com’, or LTCM. Beyond the Peso Crisis, before the Gold window closed; go back to the lead up to the Great Depression. We must go backward to frame this reality. Backward in time.
May 10, 2015
Last time I wrote, I was expecting a move to about 2064/65 or about a 2% drop into the 12.5 week cycle low. We got a 2.45% drop into May 6th, TD 13 of the 12.5 wk low. Our money flow indicators suggested more upside as they were washed out nicely and we went long...
Crude has had a very nice recovery off its recent low set in mid-March with a steady climb of nearly $20 since that time. The push through the declining 50 day moving average was the first real clue that the complexion of this market had changed in late March with...
May 9, 2015
Current investing model favors bonds over equities, therefore, investors should overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety. Cash is also a position for those who are un-invested or under invested until this model favors equities again.
The good news is: The S&P 100 (OEX) closed at an all-time high Friday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed less than 1% from their all-time highs. The negatives: Last week new lows outnumbered new highs for 3 of the 5...












